COVID-19 and Food Security in Ethiopia: Do Social Protection Programs Protect?

We assess the ability of Ethiopia's flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), to mitigate the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both prepandemic in-person household survey data and a postpandemic phone survey. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-differences approach, we find that household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap increased by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually almost all of this adverse change;the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households, and the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of the PSNP was greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators, and how we account for the nonrandomness of mobile phone ownership. Furthermore, PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points.

COVID-19 and Food Security in Ethiopia: Do Social Protection Programs Protect?

We assess the ability of Ethiopia's flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), to mitigate the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both prepandemic in-person household survey data and a postpandemic phone survey. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-differences approach, we find that household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap increased by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually almost all of this adverse change;the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households, and the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of the PSNP was greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators, and how we account for the nonrandomness of mobile phone ownership. Furthermore, PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points.

Respondent Fatigue Reduces Dietary Diversity Scores Reported from Mobile Phone Surveys in Ethiopia during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) has been used extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effects of respondent fatigue during these interviews on responses to questions about diet are unknown. OBJECTIVES: We designed an experiment that randomized the placement of a survey module on the dietary diversity of rural Ethiopian women and assessed whether responses were altered by placing this module earlier or later in a phone survey. METHODS: Two CATIs were implemented; in the second, women were randomly assigned to answer questions on diet diversity either earlier or later in the interview. Women's Dietary Diversity Scores were the primary outcome. Secondary outcomes were dichotomous measures of consumption from four or more and five or more food groups and consumption of food groups consumed frequently, often, and rarely. Impacts were assessed using a respondent fixed effects model. RESULTS: Delaying the food consumption module by 15 min in the interview led to an 8%-17% (P < 0.01) decrease in reported Dietary Diversity Scores, a 28% (P < 0.01) decrease in the number of women who consumed a minimum of four dietary groups, and a 40% (P < 0.01) and 11% (P < 0.01) decrease in the reporting of consumption of animal source foods and fruits and vegetables, respectively. Moving the food consumption module closer to the beginning of the interview increased the number of reported food groups consumed by older women, women with a below-median education level, and women in larger households. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that comparisons of descriptive statistics across studies and countries on metrics such as food security and dietary quality may be confounded by where these modules are placed in the interview, thus highlighting trade-offs between volume of information collected and data quality when designing CATI surveys.

Conceptualising COVID-19's impacts on household food security.

COVID-19 undermines food security both directly, by disrupting food systems, and indirectly, through the impacts of lockdowns on household incomes and physical access to food. COVID-19 and responses to the pandemic could undermine food production, processing and marketing, but the most concerning impacts are on the demand-side - economic and physical access to food. This paper identifies three complementary frameworks that can contribute to understanding these effects, which are expected to persist into the post-pandemic phase, after lockdowns are lifted. FAO's 'four pillars'- availability, access, stability and utilisation - and the 'food systems' approach both provide holistic frameworks for analysing food security. Sen's 'entitlement' approach is useful for disaggregating demand-side effects on household production-, labour-, trade- and transfer-based entitlements to food. Drawing on the strengths of each of these frameworks can enhance the understanding of the pandemic's impacts on food security, while also pinpointing areas for governments and other actors to intervene in the food system, to protect the food security of households left vulnerable by COVID-19 and public responses.